Bitcoin vs the US market: Nasdaq, S&P 500, gold and bonds
How bitcoin stacks up against the US stock market and gold, how closely its daily moves track stocks, and what's happening with US Treasury yields. We measure returns from a common start date and correlations from New York trading days.
Returns from a common start
Each line starts at zero on the first day of the period and shows the percentage change in price since that day. Stocks and gold only have data points on US trading days; bitcoin also has them on weekends.
Bitcoin (BTC) −9.2%Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) −9.5%S&P 500 (SPY) −3.2%Nvidia (NVDA) −21.5%Gold (XAU) −1.2%
Start: October 10, 2026. The cursor shows bitcoin's return on that day; final returns for all instruments appear above the chart and on the right axis.
Bitcoin (BTC) +18.5%Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) −5.4%S&P 500 (SPY) −2.2%Nvidia (NVDA) −17.4%Gold (XAU) −5.2%
Start: August 11, 2026. The cursor shows bitcoin's return on that day; final returns for all instruments appear above the chart and on the right axis.
Bitcoin (BTC) −5.0%Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) −5.1%S&P 500 (SPY) +1.5%Nvidia (NVDA) −20.9%Gold (XAU) −11.8%
Start: May 13, 2026. The cursor shows bitcoin's return on that day; final returns for all instruments appear above the chart and on the right axis.
| Instrument | Last close | 30 days | 90 days | 180 days | Annualized volatility | Correlation with BTC (90 days) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | 295,411 PLN$75,362Nov 9 | −9.2% | +18.5% | −5.0% | 39% | – |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | 2,671 PLN$681.28Nov 9 | −9.5% | −5.4% | −5.1% | 23% | 0.48 |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | 2,958 PLN$754.68Nov 9 | −3.2% | −2.2% | +1.5% | 15% | 0.47 |
| Nvidia (NVDA) | 707.11 PLN$180.39Nov 9 | −21.5% | −17.4% | −20.9% | 38% | 0.39 |
| Gold (XAU) | 16,250 PLN$4,146Nov 9 | −1.2% | −5.2% | −11.8% | 23% | 0.51 |
Annualized volatility: the standard deviation of daily changes over 90 days (US trading days only, bitcoin included), scaled to a year. The higher it is, the bigger the price swings.
Bitcoin's correlation with the US market
Correlation measures how often daily price changes move in the same direction: 1 means moving in perfect sync, 0 means no relationship, and negative values mean moves in opposite directions. We calculate it only from days when both instruments traded.
Rolling correlation with bitcoin (30-day window)
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) 0.66S&P 500 (SPY) 0.69Gold (XAU) 0.42
Each point is the correlation of daily changes over the previous 30 days. Above zero, prices more often moved in the same direction; below zero, in opposite directions.
US Treasury yields
The yield is the annual percentage the US government pays on borrowed money. Short-term bonds (3-month, 2-year) depend mainly on expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rates, while long-term ones (10- and 30-year) also reflect inflation and government debt.
US Treasury yields (%, weekly)
3-month 4.24%2-year 4.56%10-year 4.88%30-year 5.26%
Last trading day: November 9, 2026. The latest values are on the right axis.
10Y–2Y yield spread (pp, weekly)
Bars above zero: normal curve. Below zero: inverted curve, meaning short-term bonds pay more than long-term ones.
Why bitcoin moves with the Nasdaq
Since 2020, bitcoin has been landing in the portfolios of the same investors who buy tech stocks: funds, investment firms and, since January 2024, clients of US bitcoin ETFs. When risk appetite grows, they buy both. When they have to cut risk, they sell both.
Both asset classes thrive on cheap money. Growth stocks are valued on profits that are years away, and bitcoin pays no interest or dividends, so their appeal fades when money in savings accounts or bonds starts earning a good return.
Correlation isn't constant. It rises during panics, when investors sell everything at once, and weakens when crypto has its own stories: ETF inflows, the halving, regulation or trouble at a major exchange. The 30-day correlation is based on about 20 sessions, so it can change quickly.
What rising yields mean for crypto
The US Treasury yield is the benchmark for the entire financial world: it's what you can earn almost risk-free. When it rises, investors demand more from risky assets, and the dollar usually strengthens. For bitcoin and growth stocks, that's usually a headwind, while falling yields more often help.
It's worth watching what's pushing yields up. When short-term yields (3-month, 2-year) rise, the market expects higher Fed rates. When long-term yields rise while short-term ones hold steady, investors are worried about inflation or government debt. A 10Y–2Y spread below zero (an inverted curve) has often preceded a US recession in the past. In 2022–2024, the curve stayed inverted for more than two years.
As of November 10, 07:51, refreshed every hour. Prices: perpetual futures on QQQ (an ETF tracking the Nasdaq 100), SPY (an ETF tracking the S&P 500), Nvidia stock and gold (XAU) from the OKX public API, and bitcoin from the BTC-USDT pair on OKX. Stock perpetuals trade around the clock, including weekends, but we only count NYSE session days and the daily candle close at 0:00 UTC (19:00 or 20:00 in New York, after the session), so the figures may differ slightly from official closing prices. Yields: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates (opens in a new tab) (public domain), updated once a day.
See also: stocks and commodities · gold price · bitcoin vs gold · bitcoin ETFs · economic calendar
Frequently asked questions
Why does bitcoin rise and fall together with the Nasdaq?
What do rising US bond yields mean for crypto?
How do you calculate correlation, and what does its value mean?
What is the 10Y–2Y yield spread?
The data is for information only and is not a recommendation. Risk Warning
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