Do Poles overpay for bitcoin? The Polish zloty, kimchi and Coinbase premiums

Bitcoin in PLN: prices on markets with the BTC-PLN pair

The premium is the percentage by which the bitcoin price in PLN differs from the global price converted to PLN. Plus means it's more expensive in PLN, minus means it's cheaper. We use the midpoint between the best bid and the best ask, not the last trade, because on smaller markets the last trade can be several minutes old.

Mid: the average of the best bid and the best ask. When you buy instantly, you pay the price in the “You buy at” column plus the exchange fee. Spread: the difference between the best ask and the best bid. Kanga directs EU customers to the MiCA-licensed Kanga Exchange EU platform, where trading in PLN has only been announced so far. That's why we calculate the Polish zloty premium from Bybit EU and show Kanga's quotes as a reference point.

Digital dollars in PLN: USDT and USDC

Many people buy bitcoin in two steps: first a stablecoin (USDT or USDC, worth about 1 US dollar) for PLN, then bitcoin on a large exchange. The stablecoin premium shows what the first step alone costs, that is, exchanging PLN for digital dollars. If it's similar to bitcoin's Polish zloty premium, the whole difference comes from the currency exchange, not from demand for bitcoin itself.

We compare USDT with the dollar using the current USDT price in dollars (Kraken, Coinbase); USDC is treated as equal to 1 US dollar. Volume: the value of trades over 24 hours, in PLN.

Premiums over time

Line above zero: bitcoin on that market was more expensive than the global price; below zero: cheaper. Hover over the chart to see the value for a selected day.

What we compare against

The global price is the average of the BTC-USDT order book midpoints on the two largest exchanges, converted to dollars at the current USDT price. We convert it to PLN and KRW at the current market rate or, when that's unavailable, at the European Central Bank or NBP rate.

What the premium means and where it comes from

Polish zloty premium

If moving money were free and instant, bitcoin would cost the same everywhere. In practice, to profit from the gap, you have to deposit PLN, buy bitcoin, transfer it to another exchange, sell it for dollars and convert them back. Every step costs something: deposit and withdrawal fees, the currency spread, transfer time and the risk that the price moves in the meantime. As long as the gap is smaller than these costs, nobody closes it.

The bitcoin market in PLN is many times smaller than the market in dollars and USDT. It has fewer orders and a wider spread, and it's slower to keep up with the rest of the world, especially during sharp moves. When many people in Poland buy at once, for example after headline-grabbing rallies, the PLN price can run up faster than the global one, and in a panic it can drop lower.

That's why it's worth watching two numbers at once: the bitcoin premium and the stablecoin (USDT, USDC) premium in PLN. When they're similar, the difference comes mainly from the cost of exchanging PLN for dollars. When the bitcoin premium is clearly higher, it signals stronger demand for bitcoin itself in Poland.

Kimchi premium: a thermometer of Korean euphoria

South Korea has one of the most active crypto markets in the world, but it's heavily walled off: foreigners practically can't trade there, and Koreans face limits on transfers abroad. So price gaps don't close as quickly as elsewhere. During the euphoria of late 2017 and early 2018, the premium climbed into the tens of percent. Today traders treat it as a gauge of Korean retail investor sentiment: a high and rising premium has often accompanied local tops, and a negative one periods of apathy.

Coinbase premium: US demand

Coinbase is the largest US crypto exchange. It's used mainly by Americans, including funds and investment firms, and prices are in real dollars. When bitcoin is more expensive there than on exchanges that settle in USDT, US buyers are more active than the rest of the world. Traders watch it especially during New York trading hours and on days of large inflows into US bitcoin ETFs.

NBP rate or market rate?

The premium depends heavily on the exchange rate we use to convert the global price. The NBP publishes its average dollar rate once a day, around noon on business days, while the currency market keeps trading and stops on weekends. We calculate the main result from the current market rate and show the premium at the NBP rate for comparison. On weekends and holidays, the market rate is the last close, and free exchange rate sources can differ from each other by about 0.1–0.2%. So a premium within a few tenths of a percent shouldn't be read too literally.